Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

BACKGROUND Risk prediction for CVD events has been shown to vary according to current smoking status, pack-years smoked over a lifetime, time since quitting and age at quitting. The latter two are closely and inversely related. It is not known whether the age at which one quits smoking is an additional important predictor of CVD events. The aim of this study was to determine whether the risk of CVD events varied according to age at quitting after taking into account current smoking status, lifetime pack-years smoked and time since quitting. FINDINGS We used the Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event for a cohort of participants in the Framingham Offspring Heart Study who attended the fourth examination between ages 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD. Those who quit before the median age of 37 years had a risk of CVD incidence similar to those who were never smokers. The incorporation of age at quitting in the smoking variable resulted in better prediction than the model which had a simple current smoker/non-smoker measure and the one that incorporated both time since quitting and pack-years. These models demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The risk among those quitting more than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those whose age at quitting was prior to 44 years was similar to the risk among never smokers. However, the risk among those quitting less than 5 years prior to the baseline exam and those who continued to smoke until 44 years of age (or beyond) was two and a half times higher than that of never smokers. CONCLUSIONS Age at quitting improves the prediction of risk of CVD incidence even after other smoking measures are taken into account. The clinical benefit of adding age at quitting to the model with other smoking measures may be greater than the associated costs. Thus, age at quitting should be considered in addition to smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years when counselling individuals about their cardiovascular risk.This research was supported by an NHMRC health services research grant (no. 465130), an NHMRC/NHF PhD scholarship and a Vichealth Fellowship

Systematic review of trends in emergency department attendances : an Australian perspective

Emergency departments (EDs) in many developed countries are experiencing increasing pressure due to rising numbers of patient presentations and emergency admissions. Reported increases range up to 7% annually. Together with limited inpatient bed capacity, this contributes to prolonged lengths of stay in the ED; disrupting timely access to urgent care, posing a threat to patient safety. The aim of this review is to summarise the findings of studies that have investigated the extent of and the reasons for increasing emergency presentations. To do this, a systematic review and synthesis of published and unpublished reports describing trends and underlying drivers associated with the increase in ED presentations in developed countries was conducted. Most published studies provided evidence of increasing ED attendances within developed countries. A series of inter-related factors have been proposed to explain the increase in emergency demand. These include changes in demography and in the organisation and delivery of healthcare services, as well as improved health awareness and community expectations arising from health promotion campaigns. The factors associated with increasing ED presentations are complex and inter-related and include rising community expectations regarding access to emergency care in acute hospitals. A systematic investigation of the demographic, socioeconomic and health-related factors highlighted by this review is recommended. This would facilitate untangling the dynamics of the increase in emergency demand

Effect of aspirin on cancer incidence and mortality in older adults

BACKGROUND: ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin (100 mg) in older adults, showed an increase in all-cause mortality, primarily due to cancer. In contrast, prior randomized controlled trials, mainly involving younger individuals, demonstrated a delayed cancer benefit with aspirin. We now report a detailed analysis of cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: 19 114 Australian and US community-dwelling participants aged 70 years and older (US minorities 65 years and older) without cardiovascular disease, dementia, or physical disability were randomly assigned and followed for a median of 4.7 years. Fatal and nonfatal cancer events, a prespecified secondary endpoint, were adjudicated based on clinical records. RESULTS: 981 cancer events occurred in the aspirin and 952 in the placebo groups. There was no statistically significant difference between groups for all incident cancers (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95 to 1.14), hematological cancer (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.73 to 1.30), or all solid cancers (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.15), including by specific tumor type. However, aspirin was associated with an increased risk of incident cancer that had metastasized (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.43) or was stage 4 at diagnosis (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.45), and with higher risk of death for cancers that presented at stages 3 (HR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.03 to 4.33) or 4 (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.64). CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, aspirin treatment had an adverse effect on later stages of cancer evolution. These findings suggest that in older persons, aspirin may accelerate the progression of cancer and, thus, suggest caution with its use in this age group

Pharmacotherapies for Obesity: Past, Current, and Future Therapies

Past therapies for the treatment of obesity have typically involved pharmacological agents usually in combination with a calorie-controlled diet. This paper reviews the efficacy and safety of pharmacotherapies for obesity focusing on drugs approved for long-term therapy (orlistat), drugs approved for short-term use (amfepramone [diethylpropion], phentermine), recently withdrawn therapies (rimonabant, sibutamine) and drugs evaluated in Phase III studies (taranabant, pramlintide, lorcaserin and tesofensine and combination therapies of topiramate plus phentermine, bupropion plus naltrexone, and bupropion plus zonisamide). No current pharmacotherapy possesses the efficacy needed to produce substantial weight loss in morbidly obese patients. Meta-analyses support a significant though modest loss in bodyweight with a mean weight difference of 4.7 kg (95% CI 4.1 to 5.3 kg) for rimonabant, 4.2 kg (95% CI 3.6 to 4.8 kg) for sibutramine and 2.9 kg (95% CI 2.5 to 3.2 kg) for orlistat compared to placebo at ≥12 months. Of the Phase III pharmacotherapies, lorcaserin, taranabant, topiramate and bupropion with naltrexone have demonstrated significant weight loss compared to placebo at ≥12 months. Some pharmacotherapies have also demonstrated clinical benefits. Further studies are required in some populations such as younger and older people whilst the long term safety continues to be a major consideration and has led to the withdrawal of several drugs

Obesity and Trends in Life Expectancy

Background. Increasing levels of obesity over recent decades have been expected to lead to an epidemic of diabetes and a subsequent reduction in life expectancy, but instead all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality rates have decreased steadily i

Obesity and Trends in Life Expectancy

Background. Increasing levels of obesity over recent decades have been expected to lead to an epidemic of diabetes and a subsequent reduction in life expectancy, but instead all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality rates have decreased steadily in most developed countries and life expectancy has increased. Methods. This paper suggests several factors that may be masking the effects of obesity on life expectancy. Results. It is possible that health and life expectancy gains could be even greater if it was not for the increasing prevalence of extreme obesity. It is also possible that the principal impact of obesity is on disability-free life expectancy rather than on life expectancy itself. Conclusion. If the principal impact of obesity were through disability-free life expectancy rather than on life expectancy itself, this would have substantial implications for the health of individuals and the future burden on the health care system

Recent Decisions

Comments on recent decisions by Norman H. McNeil, David N. McBride, Robert J. Hepler, John P. Coyne, and Allan Schmid

Standardizing 1RU Chassis to PCBA Interfaces

Cisco currently designs a variety of custom chassis for different types of servers, routers, and switches. Our senior design project aims to reduce the number of custom chassis Cisco develops by standardizing the perimeter mounting locations for the printed circuit board assembly on the chassis. The purpose of this report is to document our selected project direction and support the decisions with appropriate evidence. In addition to research on the customer’s needs, the product, and the technical background used to understand the project scope, our group has come up with a way to analyze and compare mounting locations for various designs. Our team focused on the Quake chassis family to compare new designs with existing tooling and created a guideline for future standardization. We completed a MATLAB script that compares existing and future chassis hole locations to tooling locations in order to determine the best tooling set for a given chassis. We also made a document that analyzes hole locations based on the different depths of the Quake chassis families. We hope that our research and analysis will become a future guideline for designers to implement common features for PCBA mounting locations and chassis interfaces